Sonny's Beagle Bugle

Quote of the day:

Power is not a means, it is an end. One does not establish a dictatorship in order to safeguard a revolution; one makes the revolution in order to establish the dictatorship.

George Orwell

U. S. Economic (Forecast)

Reasons for Optimism:

Today, most economists are not talking about a double-dip recession, instead saying the U.S. economy will grow at 3 percent or more in 2011. Some experts say that gross domestic product will return to the level of 2007 because of increasingly better job opportunities. Unemployment could drop to 8.5 percent,

Consumers have spent more than expected, and increases in industrial production have strengthened growth. Congress extended unemployment benefits and extended tax cuts,

Stock market rally encouraged people with jobs to spend money. Dow Jones climbed 10.6 percent in 2010, up 76 percent since 2009.

Reasons for Pessimism:

Seventeen percent of Americans are unemployed or underemployed. U. S. economy must create 150,000 jobs a month in order to reduce unemployment.

Excessive debt in the U.S. and Europe. China is planning to to fight inflation by excessive slowing of its economy.

State and local governments that provide more than 10 percent of the nation's GDP, face tough budget choices.

Property taxes fell along with real estate values, causing governments to cut payrolls and spending.

Some economists say retail sales cannot keep rising at their current pace because people are not getting pay increases, although disposable income is rising by 0.2 percent per month,

These mixed messages along with government continually fiddling with the free market with subsidies, make forecasting an insurmountable task. Sonny thinks George Orwell is standing at the elbow of Mr. Obama….